Wednesday 25 February 2009

More on deflation







(Click to enlarge.) These are "fan" charts of the Bank of England's output (GDP) growth and inflation predictions respectively, as of this month (Feb 09; for full details, click here). Inflation here is defined as the annual % rate of change in the CPI (see below), which currently stands at 3.0%. This appears to predict that inflation will not dip below zero with very high probability, but that, of course, is what they want us to believe. Output growth is expected to fall to around -4% but to get back to a positive level by the end of the year, which still looks fairly optimistic.

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